MLB trade deadline: Why teams shouldn't covet prospects when atlanta braves jersey preschool trading for stars

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Every MLB team thinks they have the next Juan Soto or Mike Trout in their system.

When prospects are coming up through the minors and lighting up the lower levels, it's easy to dream on the upside: "This batter is going to have several 40-40 seasons"; "This pitcher will anchor the rotation"'; "This hitter will be iDKNY Sport n the mix for annual batting titles." Because of that upside, teams are often reluctant to trade prospects for stars in the manner that the Padres did when they sent the Nationals three players who began the year in MLB Pipeline's Top 100, and another who is in the midseason Top 100.

But prospects don't always pan out the way they are expected. While it is almost certain that players ranked within the top 20 of lists will at some point reach the majors, becoming the next Soto or Trout is another thing entirely. It's what makes the Sotos and Trouts so special.

The Sporting News looked at the history of MLB Pipeline's top 20 prospects from 2011 to 2020 to see how each panned out, and which players are the most notable prospect booms and busts.

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MLB prospect variance

Some highly rated prospects do connect. Trout was the No. 1 prospect in 2011 and the No. 3 prospect in 2012 before he was promoted. Obviously, he has since proved that those rankings were more than warranted.

But the year Trout was No. 3, Matt Moore was the top prospect. And while Moore continues to be a solid contributor in the majors, he has not developed into the ace that many expected he'd become when he received that No. 1 ranking.

MORE: Breaking down Nationals' return in Juan Soto trade

There is a lot of variance to how the sport's top prospects are rated. Here are the career Baseball Reference wins above replacement (bWAR) of players ranked 1-20 by MLB Pipeline during that 10-year span:

It doesn't take much to find Trout on there, but for the most part, top-20 prospects don't make it above even 10 bWAR.

Here are box plots for games played and career bWAR for all those players:

The median bWAR is 6.6. The 75th percentile is 13.5 bWAR. That means that 75 percent of the 123 top-20 prospects from 2011 to 2020 have contributed fewer than 13.5 bWAR.

Of course, some prospects haven't been in the majors for very long. But the 162-game bWAR average for batters is still just 3.36, while the 30-game average for pitchers would be 1.67. By comparison, Soto's 162-game bWAR average is 6.2.

MORE: MLB trade deadline winners and losers

The one thing teams can generally be certain of is that players will at least reach the majors. During that 10-year span, only two players have yet to make their MLB debut: Austin Martin and Forrest Whitley. Martin, 23, is the Twins' No. 2 prospect and is in Double-A in just his second professional season. Whitley, 24, was suspended in 2018 for a failed drug test and has dealt with a number of injuries that have slowed his progression, but he's still Houston's No. 4 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, and he's now pitching in Triple-A. He should also make it to the bigs at some point.

There are always the top performers. Top prospeMLB Pennants and Flagscts are considered top prospects for a reason. Of all the players in the minor leagues at a given time, they are the players expected to have the best careers. Trout is one of the best players of all time. Bryce Harp atlanta braves jersey 40 er is a two-time MVP. Freddie Freeman and Kris Bryant have been anchors for World Series teams. Gerrit Cole is the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history.

Plenty of players have gone on to become All-Stars. Some have become solid MLB regulars. Some have reached the majors — no doubt, an impressive feat — but then struggled.

For example, Jacob Turner was twice viewed as the No. 15 prospect, and MLB Small Jewelry when he was selected ninth overall in 2009 it was thought that he'd be a future ace, but he ended his pro career in 2018 with -2.6 bWAR. Henry Owens appeared in just 16 MLB games after he was once considered a future ace.

And while the volatility of pitching prospects can make their futures more difficult to project, plenty of hitters have underperformed their rankings, too. Lewis Brinson was ranked 16th in 2016 and 18th in 2017, and while he is still in professional baseball (Astros, Triple-A), he has not been the player many expected. He has 107 more strikeouts than hits at the MLB level, has a career .570 OPS and has posted -3.4 bWAR. Domonic Brown had an All-Star campaign in 2013, but the rest of his career was not what many expected when he was ranked fourth overall in 2011. Brown posted -1.0 bWAR in the next two years — the last two that he'd be in the majors.

MORE: Breaking down every deal completed on deadline day

Even a few top-five prospects have not developed into the stars they were supposedly guaranteed to become. Jurickson Profar was No. 1 in 2013, and w atlanta braves world series t shirts hile he has become an everyday starter for the Padres, expectations were that he would be a perennial All-Star. The same Yankees fans who argued against trading shortstops Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza fNoah Syndergaard Phillies Jerseys atlanta braves jersey 2xl xxl or Soto might have said the same thing when Gleyber Torres was ranked third in 2017 and fifth in 2018. Though he has undeniably been a valuable player for New York, he hasn't been a atlanta braves jersey large star since 2019.

Prospects are never a sure thing. The Padres knowMLB Snapback Hats there is a chance that the ones they dealt to Washington for Soto — C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell, Jarlin Susana and James Wood — will pan out. But they also know that it is more likely that none of them will reach Soto's level and a few might not even become regulars.

It's fun to dream on the next wave of big league talent. But when the chance arrives to trade the "could be a star" for the "currently is a star," go for the "currently is a star" category every time.

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