MLB underreported first

July 18, 2022 By Kevin Skiver 0

Edwin Diaz Mets no-hitter (Getty Images)

MLB is at the halfway point of the season, which means through the doldrums of summer baseball the standings are starting to take shape. While some teams will always dominate the headlines — the perennially competitive Dodgers and the MLB-best Yankees — others are making serious waves (albeit more quietly).

Some stories have gained the appropriate amount of noise as the year has gone on. Despite his trip to the injured list, Yordan Alvarez is rightfully recognized as one of baseball's eminent hitters. Elsewhere, Sandy Alcantara has catapulted into the Cy Young conversation with his outstanding season.

But what about the rest of the league? Baseball's regional nature can make it hard to take note of what's going on around the league, particularly on non-competitive teams.

As the trade deadline approaches, now is the time to take notice of some of those players, along with incredible performances being buried on very good teams.

Here are some of the most underreported stories from the first half of the 2022 MLB season.

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Edwin Diaz's shutdown dominance

Mets closer Edwin Diaz is just a cog in the machine this year. The Mets enter the break 2.5 games ahead of the Braves in the NL East with a 58-35 record.

While certain players are rightfully credited with their hot start, e.g. All-Stars like Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso, and Starling Marte — along with starting pitchers like Carlos Carrasco — others get buried in their roles.

One such pitcher is superstar closer Diaz, who was acquired in the trade that sent Jarred Kelenic to Seattle. Diaz, an All-Star himself, has shown some of the best stuff in baseball this year. He has 20 saves in 23 opportunities and has posted a 1.69 ERA. 

Diaz's Baseball Savant page is blood-red, and he's in the 99th percentile in MLB in expected ERA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage. 

Diaz has become an everyday closer, and the Mets' 14-9 record in one-run games is no accident. Despite some wildness early in his MLB career, his fastball-slider combo is one of the most un-hittable 1-2 punches in baseball when he's on.

While the success of the Mets as a team has been well-documented, Diaz has been a major reason they've weathered the slew of injuries to their pitching staff throughout the season. While the middle of the bullpen has struggled at times, if the Mets have gotten to the ninth with a lead, Diaz has generally been able to slam the door. More importantly, he's gotten better as the season he's gone on, which will be huge for a potential Mets playoff push.

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Christian Walker & Josh Bell's trade deadline bids

It's a little unfair to group these two together, but they're having sister seasons in a way. Both are first basemen for underperforming teams and both will likely be dangled as trade options at the deadline.

Bell, of course, is going to be overshadowed by Juan Soto in trade talks for the Nationals, but he is posting an excellent season for Washington. The first baseman, who made the 2019 All-Star Game with the Pirates, is batting .311 with 13 home runs on the season. Bell is on a one-year deal with the Nationals, so he was dangled as a trade option prior to the season, but he's shaping up to be an expensive rental if a team goes in that direction.

Bell's key flaw, however, is he puts the ball on the ground a lot for a player hitting in the slot he should be hitting. About 50 percent of his contact this season is ground balls, and he leads MLB in ground-into-double-plays with 18.

With that in mind, Walker could be a strong option for a team looking for a power bat. With two more years of arbitration, the team that traded for him would have more control, and he hits about 40 percent ground balls with 22 homers on the season.

Although Walker's average is significantly lower, his pop and power make him a great fit for a team that needs some life in its lineup. Power-hitting first basemen are hardly a rarity, but a team like the Guardians could well make a play for a player like Walker if they get stuck in a bidding war for someone like Bell or Jesus Aguilar. With Franmil Reyes' struggles at the plate, a second power bat could get Owen Miller out of the first base rotation and let Josh Naylor and Walker platoon at first base and DH.

While that could be a fit, the overarching point is both of these players have earned the chance to make a playoff push. It will really come down to if teams value contact in a rental or power and control.

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Luis Arraez's breakout season

Like Diaz, yes, he's an All-Star. Yes, he's starting to get talk. But Luis Arraez should be getting credit for the way he's acquired his .338 average.

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His advanced metrics aren't staggering. He's middling in average exit velocity, his hard-hit percentage is on the low end, and he doesn't barrel the ball up often. But he follows an age-old adage at the plate: Hit it where they ain't.

In a league that has become increasingly aware of player tendencies, Arraez remains difficult to pin down. He hits the ball up the middle about 40 percent of the time, he pulls it 27 percent, and he goes the opposite way 33 percent. As a left-handed batter, it makes the shift against him untenable, as he has to be treated like a righty at the plate.

Arraez's nickname, "La Regadera," is fitting in that sense. It translates to "the shower," and Arraez's spray chart reflects that.

Arraez has become the Twins' not-so-secret weapon. He's among the most difficult players in the game to strike out, his approach is consistent, and above all else, he knows how to go with any kind of pitch thrown to him. That's an increasingly rare trait in today's game, and he deserves any accolades coming his way this season.

The curious case of Logan Gilbert

Another player defying analytics? The Mariners' Logan Gilbert.

Much like Arraez, result-based stats favor him. His ERA is 2.76, he's 10-3 on the year, and watching him day in and day out his "stuff" looks correct.

Also much like Arraez, modern statistics are not as kind. His .235 batting average against is the third highest among pitchers in the top 20 in ERA, and his percentile rankings among MLB pitchers are, in a word, chilly.

Does that make Gilbert's first half a fluke? Hardly. But it definitely makes him hard to figure out. Among the Mariners' young pitchers, he's the one who has drawn the most positive results.

Gilbert will be a pitcher to keep an eye on in the back half of the season. He's become one of Seattle's most reliable starters day in and day out, but if he's over-performing, the numbers will bear that out. For the time being, Mariners fans can tout him as an All-Star snub. Other fans, meanwhile, can point to how he "should" be performing this year.

Just how bad is the NL Central?

With the way the NL Central is covered, one could be forgiven for thinking the Cardinals are running away with the division. And that's because the players are in St. Louis. Paul Goldschmidt has gotten MVP buzz since Manny Machado missed time with injury, while Nolan Arenado and Tommy Edman are among the NL's best in WAR.

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In reality, the Cardinals are just six games over .500 at 50-44, half a game behind Milwaukee in the division. Their run differential, bafflingly, is sixth in MLB at 65. But the Cardinals are 24-14 against the NL Central, whereas they're 26-30 against the rest of MLB.

The Brewers, similarly, have cannibalized a bad division. They're 28-19 against the NL Central, and 22-24 against the rest of the league. They have the second-worst record among all division leaders, better only than the Twins, and to make matters worse even closer Josh Hader is struggling heading into the break.

The Pirates, Cubs, and Reds know their lot; they're bad teams trying (at varying paces) to get better. But the top of the division should be worried about its struggles against the rest of baseball. The AL Central's struggles are known and documented. The NL Central will need to prove itself in the second half of the season.

The mastery of Martin Perez

After a couple of years on the move, Martin Perez returned to his Texas roots this year. The southpaw got the first All-Star nod of his career, as he's pitched to a 2.68 ERA on the season. He's also one of six pitchers this season to throw a complete game shutout, joining Michael Wacha, Walker Buehler, Reid Detmers (no-hitter), Hunter Green and Chad Kuhl.

Perez has posted a 7-2 record for Texas this season, and much like Gilbert, his advanced stats page is hardly something to get too excited about. Unlike Gilbert, however, there's a clear correlation between one stat and his success: his ability to miss barrels. Perez may not miss a ton of bats, but he isn't finding the middle of them either.

Perez's strikeout-walk ratio is better than 3:1, and he already has a Player of the Month to his name this year. Make no mistake. Perez wasn't a representation selection (he was the only Ranger to make the All-Star Game before Corey Seager was added later). He earned his lot this year, just like the others listed above.